...there is no one method for online video. I have been working and playing in the online video realm for a few years now, and like with most things online their is no one way to do it right. Youtube Hulu or Revision3, portal or super-distribution, content heavy or viral; the slippery question of how to distribute, monetize and express your web video to the world is beset on all sides by the inequity of web content distribution. The truth of the matter is that a) the web is created and driven by its users, not by the content creators, b) broadcast rules do not apply to this media, c) context not content is king, and d) if no one can find your video, then no one cares how good it is.
I am sure I am not saying anything new. In fact anyone who has read The Long Tail and listened to a few good episodes of This Week in Media has probably pieced this together on their own. But still the argument persists on how to make online videos that get huge traffic, drive sales, and can be monetized and owned by a single author. Users are out their looking for something particular, and don't have the capacity to play by artificial rules generated by antiquated media distribution frameworks.
Viral videos will continue to populate Youtube and be a repository for office workers killing time. Hulu, Joust and the other old media players will help connect the two screens of TV and computers and let individuals catch up on their favorite shows. But we are at the equivalent of 1986 cable television. Splintered niche content trying to use the same methods that used to work for old distribution and money.
As the web moves further and further from destination content and more towards user centered design and structure, videos and all media online will become a commodity unto themselves. Within a year or two, meta-tagging of videos will become very sophisticated allowing all content to be searchable. Creating content that fits the niches all people are finding online in text already will be the most direct method of engaging an active audience. Utilizing technology such as Overlay's ability to embed direct links to ownable content will allow brands and advertisers to define direct sales channels.
Their will always be tv commercials online, tv shows online, user generated/viral videos and video portal sites. But none of these by themselves is a conduit to the future of web video. It will be a collection strategies and technologies that propel video online (not to mention bandwidth issues and/or ubiquitous peer to peer installations). However, users control the conversation and consumption of content online, and this requires a new way of looking at the entire issue in the future.
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